"The most powerful lobbying group in Washington is. . ."
NOT the National Rifle Association, contrary to popular belief
“The most powerful lobbying group in Washington is the National Rifle Association.”
-Jens Ludwig (2025)
By the time you read this, I should be on my way to Atlanta for the 154th National Rifle Association annual meetings and exhibits (NRAAM). When I wrote about my expectations for the event last week, I mentioned the NRA-Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA) Leadership Forum. Since then, I have learned that this part of the event has been quietly canceled after Donald Trump and others didn’t commit to attending the event.
Personally, I won’t miss what amounts to a Republican (and Christian) political rally. If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all. In my four previous visits to the NRAAM, I only attended the Leadership Forum once — in Houston in 2013, right after President Obama was reelected and the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre.
For over three hours, I listened to various politicians (and selected others) speak about God, guns, and conservative politics, including Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Asa Hutchinson, John Bolton, Jeanine Pirro, and Sarah Palin.
Twelve years later, the NRA is recovering from some serious self-inflicted wounds. It isn’t the organization it used to be, but it still has some political clout. How much is an open question as gun control and gun rights haven’t been at the top of the political agenda in the second Trump administration.
Even in the best of times, however, people frequently overstated the NRA’s political influence.
They still do.
In my Light Over Heat Virtual Book Club, we are reading a book by University of Chicago economist Jens Ludwig, Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence. (Aside: Please join us for a Q&A with the author on May 14 at 6:00 EDT - info here and registration link.)
The book is rigorously argued and carefully documented, and yet still contains a very plain — and incorrect — statement about the NRA: “The most powerful lobbying group in Washington is the National Rifle Association.”
Ludwig provides no evidence for this claim because, to my knowledge, there is none.
Ludwig, of course, is in good company here. I used to keep track of those who perpetuated this myth about the NRA to score rhetorical points. Here are some examples:
PBS Frontline episode “NRA Under Fire” (2020): “behemoth,” “feared,” “unrivaled power.”
”Gangster Capitalism” podcast, Season 2: The NRA (2020): “the nation’s most powerful special interest group.”
Frank Smyth, The NRA: The Unauthorized History (2020): “the most vaunted and powerful of America’s lobbyists” (p. 95).
Tim Mak, Misfire: Inside the Downfall of the NRA (2021): “America’s most powerful advocacy group” (p. 2).
Ryan Busse, Gunfight: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized America (2021): “the world’s most powerful political organization” (p. 161)
I am not an expert in political lobbying, but these claims ring hollow on their face. Who seriously thinks the NRA is more politically powerful than the petrochemical industry or Silicon Valley or banking or insurance or Big Pharma?
In terms of actual scholarship on the political influence of the NRA, some quick Google Scholar searches for NRA political influence yield the following. NRA endorsements did not affect gubernatorial elections in 1994. Examining 1994 and 1996 congressional elections reveals NRA endorsements “can have a statistically discernible effect on election outcomes, but not in all elections and for all candidates.”
Beyond elections, the NRA does better in affecting state firearms legislation when it “plants in fertile soil.” As Trent Steidley has observed, “the NRA does influence CCW laws, but its effect is mediated by public opinion, political ideologies, competitive elections, and political opportunities.”
In the end, I don’t know which political organization is the most powerful. I do know that it is not the National Rifle Association.
Here in New Mexico, the NRA generally gets outspent by the gun control organizations by something like 10:1 or more. Basically, the GOP is outnumbers almost 2:1 in the legislature, so there are fewer key politicians to lavish campaign contributions on. We did manage to kill some bad bills this session, in no small part due to the fact that we are a true grassroots organization and can mobilize members.
I would tend to think up till the current Trump administration it would be the Teachers union.